By Lian Cheng and Ashikin Nur Louis
KUCHING, Nov 14: The opposition coalition Gerakan Tanah Air (GTA) will be wiped out during 15th General Election (GE15) while Parti Pejuang Tanah Air (Pejuang) will be dismantled after the election.
This is the prediction of political analyst Kamarazaman Yaakob, who held that former Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad is now no longer the same man leading the opposition during the 14th General Election (GE14).
“According to my analysis, (Dr) Mahathir will even lose in Langkawi. Most of the GTA candidates will also lose their deposits.
“We see (Dr) Mahathir no longer the same man as he was in the last election. During that time, the people saw him as the saviour of the nation in face of the 1MDB scandal.
“But his influence has waned today because in the Johor state election, Pejuang fielded 42 candidates. Despite (Dr) Mahathir going to the ground to campaign, all candidates lost their deposits,” Kamarazaman told DayakDaily in an exclusive online interview yesterday.
Apart from Pejuang, GTA also includes Parti Bumiputera Perkasa Malaysia (Putra), Barisan Jemaah Islamiah Se-Malaysia (Berjasa) and Parti Perikatan India Muslim Nasional (Iman).
Kamarazaman said although GTA is made up of these four parties, the majority of the youth have no idea of who or what they are.
Thus, he opined, although GTA is a coalition, it is an ineffective one and the real battle for federal power is between Barisan Nasional (BN), Perikatan Nasional (PN) and Pakatan Harapan (PH).
“And I believe that Pejuang after this (GE15) will be dismantled. I do not foresee the coalition (GTA) as surviving,” said Kamarazaman who is also a political strategist and the elder brother of caretaker Prime Minister Dato Sri Ismail Sabri Yaakob.
On the spike in youth voters totalling five million nationwide, he predicted their votes will not affect the outcome of GE15.
Among the reasons he cited was that youth voters are mainly concentrated in big cities and sub-urban constituencies where their votes will only serve to increase the majority in the constituencies they are registered to vote in.
Secondly, there are not many youth voters registered in rural areas and even if there are, they are normally influenced by their conservative parents who do not harbour anti-establishment sentiments.
Kamarazaman opined the majority of rural youth will not reject BN candidates because their parents and friends still very much rely on the government for development.
“This is different from the city because city economic activities generate development itself, not the government. Thus, it is hard for them (rural youth) to take the risk to vote for the opposition. There might be some but the numbers are small and it will not affect the outcome of the election,” said Kamarazaman.
On the general election atmosphere in Peninsular Malaysia, he said election campaigns are being carried out peacefully and without tension as there are no major issues for the opposition to play up.
“Back then, they had 1MDB which led to BN’s downfall but now they have nothing except simple issues like corruption, money laundering and national debts which are unable to make an impact on the voters. This is different from the past, where the BN ruling coalition had a hard time defending themselves, to the extent that they became very defensive when questioned.
“For this election, both sides of the political divide may attack and rebut because the ruling coalition can also use the weakness of PH’s 22-month administration as their weapon to attack the opposition,” said Kamarazaman. — DayakDaily