By Lian Cheng and Ashikin Nur Louis
KUCHING, Nov 14: The balance of power in Malaysia’s national politics is predicted to maintain the status quo after the 15th General Election (GE15) where Barisan Nasional is expected to form the federal government with Perikatan Nasional (PN), Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS).
Political analyst Kamarazaman Yaakob said after evaluating the voter demographics and the results of the Sabah and Sarawak elections as well as state elections in Melaka and Johor, he felt it was safe to conclude that there will be no single coalition which will form the next government.
“Based on my analysis, BN might win 60 to 65 seats, while PN can secure about 30 to 35 seats with other statistics showing that the latter can get up to 50.
“For GRS and BN in Sabah, I am confident that they can win 15 seats while GPS can win up to 27 seats.
“I think after GE15, the coalitions forming the government will be BN, PN, GRS and GPS,” he said in an online interview with DayakDaily yesterday.
Predicting that Pakatan Harapan (PH) may win up to 80 seats in the general polls—a larger number than either BN or PN—he believed that the coalition still lacks the numbers to gain a simple majority to form the government of the day.
He pointed out PH’s dilemma is further compounded by a frosty reception from GPS in Sarawak, as stated by Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB) vice president Dato Sri Abdul Karim Rahman Hamzah who had on Oct 19, said GPS will work with any party except PH.
“This is also because DAP (Democratic Action Parti) chairman Lim Guan Eng who was the Finance Minister during the PH administration, had claimed that Sarawak would go bankrupt within three years if the State continued to be governed by GPS. This offended GPS and it is a mistake which PH could not erased.
“Thus, I cannot foresee PH will be in power. Post-GE15, I can only see BN, PN, GRS and GPS forming the government,” said Kamarazaman who is also a political strategist and the elder brother of caretaker Prime Minister Dato Sri Ismail Sabri Yaakob.
Kamarazaman pointed out the component parties which make up GPS and BN have a long, shared history.
“It is quite certain that this part of history will be taken into account during negotiations, in thoughts and the way Sarawak leaders deal with BN leaders.”
He said at this stage, Sarawak Premier Datuk Patinggi Tan Sri Abang Johari Tun Openg is on good terms with Ismail Sabri, with the relationship a cordial one.
“To me, it is easy for GPS leadership to work together with its former colleagues from BN rather than PH which had not been kind to GPS during its 22 months of administration.
“So I believe GPS through Abang Johari are more prepared to work with BN or PN because before the dissolution, GPS was already part of the cabinet set up by the caretaker Prime Minister,” he emphasised. — DayakDaily