Letter to the Editor
By Prof Datuk Dr Jayum Jawan
In less than five days, on July 11, Johoreans will go to the polls to elect the members of the 16th Johor Legislative Assembly.
In the previous state election in 2022, the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition won a two-thirds majority when the United Malays National Organisation (Umno) won 33 seats, followed by the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) with four, and the Malayan Indian Congress (MIC) with three. Can BN return in 2026 with the same strong mandate?
Much is at stake in the Johor election, depending on its outcome. Barisan Nasional (BN)-Umno, Pakatan Harapan (PH)-Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR), and Perikatan Nasional (PN)-Bersatu all have interests that extend beyond their performance in the state polls. The election could serve as a barometer of their prospects in the next general election.
BN and Umno must win the same number of 40 seats or more if they want to be seen as retaining their popularity and strength. This is significant as the coalition seeks to return to its former glory.
Even winning a simple majority is not good enough. It would be seen as losing its grip and therefore not a good sign for them as the general election is approaching. Worst still, losing the majority to form the state government on its own could signal the beginning of the end of its aspiration to resurrect BN and Umno in the national political scene.
For PH and PKR, their increasing acceptance will be based on how well they will perform. In the previous state election, the PH coalition won 12 seats—10 by DAP and one each by PKR and Amanah. This time around, PKR needs a substantial win to show it is increasingly accepted among the Johoreans or especially among the Malays in general.
On DAP’s side, it would be a huge test of its sustainability in view of the fact that the party was rejected by the Chinese community in the last Sabah election. It is a report card of sorts, as generally there is said to be a general dissatisfaction with DAP for its failure to deliver what the party supporters had hoped for when DAP was part of the new government under PH since 2018.
PN-Bersatu’s political future also relies on how well it performs in its home state. This would be its launching pad as a serious contender in national politics. It would be significant as the coalition and party have been facing various challenges from members leaving and forming new parties, as well as continuing abrasion with its partner, PAS.
Who wins and who loses will provide strategic realignment for political coalitions and parties moving toward the coming general election. The political contestations remain a Peninsular Malay prerogative as they constitute the majority population at the national level as well as in many states.
However, non-Malay support has become increasingly important due to the divided majority. Suddenly, after 2018, they found that they could be the decider in which Peninsular Malay has the majority to form a government.
The country’s early constitutional framers believed that no single group should hold an overwhelming majority, as this would help ensure good governance by bringing together diverse voices and fostering a more inclusive and representative government.
Prof Datuk Dr Jayum Jawan is currently a Fellow of the Academy of Sciences Malaysia and the Institution of Malay Rulers Chair at UiTM, as well as an Adjunct Professor with the Institute of Borneo Studies in Unimas.
This is the personal opinion of the author(s) and does not necessarily represent the views of DayakDaily. Letters to the Editor may be lightly edited for clarity.
— DayakDaily
